Has Bitcoin Finally Hit Its Lowest Point — Or Is There More Pain Ahead?

Bitcoin (BTC) slid 3.4% over the past 24 hours, triggering a wave of liquidations totaling $104.38 million. The overwhelming majority of those forced closures — $91.66 million — came from long positions, as Bitcoin continued to slide further below the $60,000 mark.

CryptoRover, a well-known crypto influencer, took to X to share a technical analysis that drew attention across the trading community. His price chart highlighted a descending triangle pattern that Bitcoin formed between 2021 and 2022, where the RSI indicator followed a strikingly similar trajectory. According to CryptoRover, that same pattern appears to be playing out again in the 2025–2026 timeframe. If history rhymes, the market could need additional time to form a solid bottom before staging a breakout above the triangle's resistance.

Should the previous cycle repeat itself, a sustained bullish reversal might not begin until Q4 2026. It's worth noting that while whale accumulation is currently underway, it has not yet reached the pace typically associated with a genuine market turnaround.

On the fundamental side, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. flagged a notable shift in the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder MVRV ratio, which has compressed to 1.24 — its lowest reading in three years. This metric compares the market value of long-term holders' coins to the average price they paid for them. A reading of 1.24 suggests the market is drawing closer to historical cycle lows, yet analysts note that for a confirmed bottom, the MVRV would need to fall further into the so-called "Very Low" green capitulation zone.

Another key threshold to watch: the average cost basis for long-term holders currently sits at $48,400. If Bitcoin's price were to drop below that level, it would push this cohort into an unrealized loss on average — a scenario typically associated with deep capitulation, even among the most committed long-term investors.

Benjamin Cohen, Founder and CEO of Into The CryptoVerse, offered additional cycle context using the 200-week moving average. His analysis pointed out that June 2022 and June 2026 both saw Bitcoin breach this historically significant moving average to the downside, reinforcing the idea that the current 4-year cycle is unfolding very much in line with previous ones.

Meanwhile, derivatives market data is raising fresh concerns. The rising long/short ratio indicates that more traders are positioned long than short in the futures market. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, warned that "this excessive long exposure is one of the main reasons behind the recent selloffs." With leveraged longs piling up, the conditions are ripe for another long squeeze, potentially playing out over the coming days or weeks — much like what occurred in the first week of June.

Taken together, the picture for Bitcoin is one of caution. The asset has broken below its 200-week moving average and could face continued downside pressure in the months ahead. While on-chain and cycle metrics suggest the market is approaching historically significant bottom territory, most indicators signal that a definitive low has not yet been reached. Investors and traders alike may need to exercise patience as the market works through this extended corrective phase.