Galaxy Research Drops CLARITY Act Odds to 50% as Senate Runs Out of Time

Galaxy Research has once again trimmed its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, this time down to 50%. The latest reduction follows a prior cut to 60% made on June 5, with both adjustments driven by the same underlying factor: a shrinking Senate legislative calendar.

Importantly, the downgrade is not a reflection of growing opposition to the bill itself. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of research, emphasized that the legislation still lacks a scheduled floor date despite having been placed on the Senate calendar.

A Calendar That's Running Out of Room

Thorn had initially assigned the bill 75% odds following its committee markup in May, before walking that back to 60% in early June. Each successive cut has mirrored the dwindling number of available Senate session days rather than any deterioration in the bill's political standing.

The Senate departed for a state work period on June 29 and is not expected back until July 13. That effectively leaves roughly four working weeks of legislative activity before the chamber enters its longer summer recess, scheduled from August 10 through September 11.

Making matters more complicated, the CLARITY Act is not the only priority fighting for floor time during that narrow window. The SAVE Act, an ongoing housing bill dispute, surveillance reauthorization, and the annual defense authorization bill are all jostling for the same limited schedule. Thorn noted in a public post that "growing competition for floor time from other items" is a key driver behind his revised outlook.

What Still Needs to Happen

On the legislative front, the CLARITY Act has already cleared one major hurdle. The House passed the bill in July 2025 by a strong 294-134 margin. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott's panel then advanced it with a 15-9 bipartisan vote during a May 14 markup session.

However, the bill passed out of committee with just two Democratic votes. To succeed on the Senate floor, it requires 60 votes total, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to cross the aisle.

Two sticking points continue to cloud that prospect. Ethics-related provisions and developer protection clauses remain unresolved, and a key round of negotiations on the ethics language broke down on June 9. In a show of industry urgency, more than 200 crypto companies sent a joint letter to Senate leadership in June calling for a floor vote to be scheduled without further delay.

Markets Reflecting Deep Uncertainty

Prediction market participants appear even less optimistic than Galaxy's analysts. As of this week, Polymarket placed the odds of 2026 passage at roughly 44%, a steep drop from around 74% in May when ethics concerns first began weighing on sentiment.

The CLARITY Act, if passed, would establish a shared regulatory framework dividing oversight responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC for crypto markets. A failure to move the bill before the summer recess would push any resolution into the fall, prolonging the regulatory uncertainty currently hanging over the US digital asset industry.

Despite the tightening timeline, Thorn has not ruled out a July vote. The next few weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the bill advances or stalls for months.