CLARITY Act Faces Uncertain Future as Senate Window Rapidly Closes

Galaxy Research has revised its probability forecast for the CLARITY Act's passage, cutting its outlook from 60% down to an even 50/50. The firm now considers the bill's fate essentially neutral — a significant shift that reflects growing concern about the increasingly crowded legislative calendar in Washington.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, pointed to a specific external factor as the primary driver behind the downgrade. President Donald Trump declared this week that he would refuse to sign a housing bill unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act. That ultimatum has added yet another item to an already packed Senate schedule, further squeezing the available time for crypto-related legislation like the CLARITY Act.

The bill itself has cleared at least one important milestone — it successfully passed the Senate Banking Committee back in May, earning the right to advance toward a full Senate floor vote. However, a critical step still stands in the way: versions of the bill originating from both the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee must be merged into a single, unified piece of legislation before any floor vote can take place.

Galaxy did acknowledge some encouraging signs on this front, noting that reconciliation talks between the two committees are continuing at the staff level and that negotiations appear to be moving in a constructive direction. Nevertheless, Thorn was quick to temper expectations. No public agreement between the Banking and Agriculture committees has been announced, no unified legislative text has been released, and there is no confirmed timeline for when the bill might come to a floor vote.

Among the unresolved sticking points are stablecoin yield provisions, ethics-related clauses, and Section 604, which deals with developer protections. These issues remain largely untouched, adding to the bill's precarious status.

With the Senate scheduled to begin a two-week recess following the Fourth of July holiday and resuming on July 13th, the available legislative window is shrinking fast. The August recess, set to begin around the second week of that month, effectively leaves only about four weeks of active Senate sessions remaining — four weeks in which both the final bill text and a floor vote date need to materialize.

The final text of the CLARITY Act is reportedly expected to be released in early July, though no official confirmation has been given. Stand With Crypto, a lobbying group closely affiliated with Coinbase, reinforced the urgency of the situation, warning that a Senate recess without a vote would not kill the bill outright but would cause significant delays in an already tight timeframe.

Meanwhile, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood weighed in on the controversial Section 604, advocating for what she described as a 'thoughtful and nuanced' implementation — one that avoids creating conditions that would drive crypto development and innovation out of the United States and into foreign markets.

In summary, the CLARITY Act still has a path forward, but that path is narrowing with each passing day. Without concrete progress on the remaining contested provisions and a confirmed Senate floor vote date within the next four weeks, the bill risks being pushed into the next legislative cycle.