Celestia Developers Plan to Offload $2M Worth of TIA in July — Can Buyers Hold the Line?

Celestia's native token TIA has recorded significant losses over the past 24 hours, and while the decline appears to mirror the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, a deeper look at the token's unlock schedule reveals structural factors that could amplify selling pressure going forward.

According to DeFiLlama data, the Celestia development team is preparing to distribute approximately $67,000 worth of TIA onto the open market every single day throughout July. Combined with a $28,000 tranche that was already slated for July 1st, this activity will inject roughly $2.03 million in total supply across the full 31-day period.

On the surface, this kind of consistent, scheduled selling reads as a bearish signal. However, spot market data from June suggests that organic buying activity may be sufficient to counterbalance the added supply. Total spot purchases during that period reached $106.68 million, with net inflows of approximately $4.8 million favoring buyers — a relatively encouraging sign for TIA bulls heading into the new month.

Open Interest Dips, But Funding Rate Stays Positive

Despite the recent bearish sentiment flowing through the market, derivatives data paints a more nuanced picture. CoinGlass figures reveal that Open Interest — the total capital locked into TIA's perpetual futures contracts — declined by roughly 2%, representing a $1.16 million reduction that brings net OI to around $58 million.

Yet this pullback in Open Interest hasn't significantly altered how traders are positioned. The Open-Interest Weighted Funding Rate currently sits at +0.0038%, indicating that the majority of capital in perpetual markets remains skewed toward long positions. In other words, traders are still betting on upside rather than a continued decline.

Importantly, the mildly bullish reading suggests that positioning has not become overcrowded on the long side. This reduces the likelihood of a sudden, sharp liquidation cascade and points toward more measured, stable market behavior in the near term.

Liquidity Heatmap Hints at Potential Recovery

The TIA liquidity heatmap on CoinGlass offers additional context. While heatmaps don't predict price direction with certainty, they do reveal where concentrated buy and sell orders are clustered. Currently, the heaviest order density sits above the current price level, which statistically increases the probability of a rally toward those zones.

That said, short-term momentum remains a problem. TIA is already down double digits on the day, and continued weakness could redirect price action toward the lower-side liquidity clusters. Those lower clusters, however, contain substantial resting buy orders that could act as a springboard for a medium-term recovery if reached.

Conclusion

Celestia's team is set to introduce approximately $2.03 million worth of TIA into circulation throughout July, layering additional supply-side pressure onto an already struggling token. Despite this headwind, spot demand metrics and a persistently positive Funding Rate indicate that buyers may have enough firepower to absorb the incoming tokens. Whether the market can sustain that demand amid broader crypto weakness remains the central question for TIA investors this month.