Bitcoin Whales Step In as ETF Outflows Hit $4.06B — Is a Recovery Possible?

Institutional interest in Bitcoin appears to be cooling off, stripping the market of one of its most reliable sources of structured buying pressure.

According to data from SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have now recorded seven straight days of net outflows. In the most recent session alone, Bitcoin ETFs shed $445 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw $12.85 million exit the funds. The bleeding has added up fast — monthly Bitcoin ETF flows have gone negative to the tune of approximately $4.06 billion, dragging total ETF assets down to $72.82 billion.

This matters more than it might seem on the surface. During previous market pullbacks, institutional ETF buyers absorbed a significant portion of available supply, acting as a buffer against sharp drawdowns. With that demand now retreating, the market loses a structural support mechanism it has come to rely on.

The question now becomes: who steps in to fill the gap?

Interestingly, on-chain data suggests that large Bitcoin holders — commonly referred to as whales — may be doing exactly that. When Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $60,000 mark before bouncing back, whale activity picked up noticeably. The network logged 6,920 transactions exceeding $100,000 and 1,438 transactions above $1 million, representing the second-largest spike in large-volume transactions over the past two months, according to Santiment.

This pattern implies that major investors interpreted the price drop not as a warning sign, but as a buying opportunity. If whales continue absorbing available supply while exchange balances stay tight, downward pressure on the price may gradually subside. That said, broader retail and spot market participation will need to pick up before any sustained upward move becomes realistic.

On the other side of the equation, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) are telling a different story. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has slipped deeper into negative territory, a sign that seasoned investors are now selling at a loss after Bitcoin repeatedly failed to hold above $60,000. The monthly SOPR average has fallen from 1.03 to 0.8 — implying long-term holders have realized roughly 13% in losses over the past month.

The yearly average has also declined, dropping from 2.06 to 1.46, which confirms that realized profits across the LTH cohort are steadily shrinking. This erosion of conviction among older holders adds another layer of uncertainty to the near-term outlook.

However, there is a silver lining to LTH capitulation. Historically, when the supply of profitable coins becomes exhausted, sell-side pressure tends to taper off naturally. This dynamic often sets the stage for a slow, measured recovery — even if an immediate reversal remains unlikely.

In summary, Bitcoin is navigating a challenging environment where institutional demand via ETFs is weakening, long-term holders are feeling the pain, but large investors are quietly accumulating. The path to recovery likely hinges on whether whale buying can hold the line until broader market demand returns.